Rather than relying on the future Long March 9 super-heavy launcher to send its first crews to the Moon in the early 2030s, China could modify two already existing launchers. In this way, the country could arrive sooner, probably within the decade.
A few months ago, the heads of the Chinese and Russian space agencies signed an agreement providing for the construction of a research station on the Moon. On site, astronauts will be able to conduct multidisciplinary studies related to the exploration and operation of our satellite. The objective will also be to establish facilities capable of supporting a human presence if necessary.
The project will be done in several phases. The first will consist of collecting data using several probes to determine the location of the future base near the lunar south pole. These missions will include the Chinese Chang'e-6 and Chang'e-7 missions and the Russian Luna 25, 26 and 27 missions. All of these vessels are expected to operate from 2024-2025.
During the second phase of the project (2026 to 2030), the Chinese mission Chang'e-8 and the Russian mission Luna 28 will settle on the site chosen . The construction of the facilities will be animated by robotic systems. In the idea, China hoped to send the first astronauts on the spot from the beginning of the 2030s based on its super-heavy Long March 9 launcher, under development.
That said, it is also possible that China will operate differently to accelerate the development of its first manned lunar mission.
According to Long Lehao, chief designer of the Long March rocket family, China may indeed rely on two modified Long March 5 rockets to improve their performance. For now, these rockets have a capacity similar to that of the Delta IV Heavy, from United Launch Alliance (ULA).
If this project sees the light of day, one of these large rockets (which would now be dubbed Long March 5-DY) would launch a lunar lander into lunar orbit while the second would send the crew to meet him. The crew would then be transferred aboard the lander to surface. The astronauts would spend about six hours on site before returning to Earth.
For Eric Berger of Ars Technica, the use of a rocket model could actually get China to reach the Moon faster. Also, the fact that Long Lehao himself brought up the idea suggests that it's more of an option than possible. According to Andrew Jones, a journalist who closely follows the Chinese space program, an announcement about it could be made at the Zhuhai Air Show in late September or early October.
If it materializes, this project will only fuel the idea that NASA and China are indeed engaged in a real "space race", involving on the one hand the United States and its partners against China and Russia. It remains to be seen whether all these beautiful people will be able to get along.
